Acronymization Labs

Peter Donnelly on Statistics

2010-06-27T11:26:00.000-07:00

The Tea Party on Tax Day

2010-04-20T03:09:00.000-07:00

So Long, And Thanks For All The Bugs

2010-04-09T03:06:00.000-07:00

Something called white-nose syndrome is killing large numbers of bats in the northeastern United States. It's being compared to the disappearance of the bees, since no one understands exactly what is happening. They are calling it "white-nose syndrome" because the dead bats are found with a fungus growing around their noses.

Massive Multiplayer Classrooms

2010-03-20T03:28:00.000-07:00

Massive Multiplayer Workplaces?

Check this out.

I was already thinking about the book, "The One Minute Manager", before I got to the end of this story, where that book is directly referenced. This idea looks like a winner to me.

Susan Boyle Again

2010-03-15T03:17:00.000-07:00

Duet with Elaine Paige, "I Know Him So Well", from the musical "Chess".

Olympic Ice Dancing

2010-02-23T03:45:00.000-08:00

Bolero

Coon Huntin'

2010-02-18T12:36:00.000-08:00

Jerry Clower.

Fox News Dumbest Anti-Atheist Question of the Month?

2009-11-29T17:36:00.000-08:00

Fox News Not Trustworthy?

2009-11-11T21:43:00.001-08:00

Everybody (all seven of you), if you haven't already, go to Norm's blog and watch this clip from Jon Stewart.

Fictional Characters

2009-11-02T12:23:00.000-08:00

Thanks to Norm (who in turn thanked someone else, but I've got to draw the line somewhere.)

Hat Fail

2009-08-05T04:31:00.000-07:00

see more Fail Blog

Best. Headline. Evar.

2009-08-01T08:26:00.000-07:00

The Dangers of Auto-Replace

Conservative groups need to be careful, lest they appear to be idiots.

The Rippy Awards

2009-07-01T21:30:00.000-07:00

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart

Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c

The Rippy Awards for Outstanding Achievement in Obitutainment

thedailyshow.com

Daily Show
Full Episodes

Political Humor

Jason Jones in Iran

The Big Show

2009-05-21T02:29:00.000-07:00

Most days, I’m pretty well fed up with humanity.

Other days, I am immensely grateful to be part of such a vastly entertaining group.

Case in point.

Executive Summary: a 13-year-old boy has a very treatable type of cancer. But the first round of chemo made him sicker. (It’s called “nausea”, and is a common side effect of the chemo.) So the family declined treatment on religious grounds. The boy is a Medicine Man in some kind of native-American-ish cult. A judge ordered him to undergo chemo. Now he and his mother are fleeing.

For those who don’t know me at all well, I vote Let Him Die. Darwinism, remember? Let’s flush some of these substandard genes out of the system.

The funny part to me is that they want to rely on alternative treatments that they discovered on the internet. Science is bad when it comes to medicine, but good when it comes to technology to use in order to prove that science is bad.

I love it so much that my heart grew three sizes today. Love love love love. You just do your thing, Humanity. I’ll make popcorn.

Den of Uniquity

2009-05-19T11:44:00.000-07:00

Here’s something for the “I want to be unique, just like everyone else” crowd: Where all boys end up nowadays

If everyone runs in the same direction, it’s called a stampede, and you are still part of the herd. Take that, Austin, Jaydin, Jordan, Brendan. Et al.

Recommendations and Caveats 3

2009-05-19T10:54:00.000-07:00

TV Show: 24: Season 7

Okay, so Tony Almeida is back. Yes, he died in Season 5, but that is easily overcome when ratings are on the line. The day starts out with Jack appearing before a Senate committee to answer for all his crimes against humanity, but then of course he must dash off to save the world yet again. A key subtext to the entire season is the debate between lawfulness, represented by some by-the-book FBI agents, and pragmatism, as demonstrated by Jack and Chloe.

We have a new President, Allison Taylor, whom I liked (although not as much as David Palmer). And the President has a daughter, which brings us to-

Caveat: Olivia Taylor

Dumb Chicks must be part of some Hollywood formula of which I am unaware. (Maybe that’s why they are having such trouble with the Harry Potter movies. They probably refer to it as “The Hermione Granger Dilemma”.)

At any rate, if Olivia Taylor and Kim Bauer ever actually met, the edifices of order would simply collapse to dust. Instaspontaneously.

The two hour finale aired last night, and the entire season is available on DVD today.

The Plane Ate My Luggage

2009-05-15T18:49:00.000-07:00

Leave Nothing But Footprints

2009-05-14T23:33:00.000-07:00

2 Yellowstone workers fired after watering geyser

Two seasonal Yellowstone National Park concession workers have been fired after a live webcam caught them urinating into the Old Faithful geyser.

Shocked, I am.

Xanterra Parks & Resorts general manager Jim McCaleb says the former concession workers were hired at the Old Faithful Inn and that such incidents were rare.

When I worked at Yellowstone, it was called the IPOF (I Peed in Old Faithful) Club. We even had IPOF t-shirts. And I wouldn't describe such incidents as "rare", although I admit we didn't have to contend with a live webcam back then.

Although I never made it all the way out to Old Faithful (the ground feels really weird out there, like you might fall through), I did manage to get into some trouble. I still have the summons. Did you know that any crime you commit in a national park is automatically a federal offense? Even public intox?

Recommendations and Caveats 2

2009-05-10T17:51:00.000-07:00

Comic: Louis CK

Caveat: Louis CK

He’s not for everyone.

TV Show: The World Series of Poker

This is a fairly recent discovery for me, considering that I enjoy poker. Poker is actually fun to watch.

Caveat: Norman Chad

Norm is one of the two announcers on the show. And he’s really annoying. I don’t like his voice. I don’t like his lame, self-deprecating jokes. But for me at least, the poker is entertaining enough to overcome that and end up as a slight positive.

Movie: Koyaanisqatsi

I finally got around to watching that this weekend, thanks in large part to the fact that you can watch the whole thing at YouTube (click the link to watch). It’s about an hour and a half long. Inspirational and depressing. Visually perhaps the most stunning movie I’ve ever seen. The moonrise scene is my favorite.

Caveat: Original music by Philip Glass. I won’t be rushing out to buy the soundtrack. If that name sounds vaguely familiar to fans of the TV show Frasier, here’s why.

Postal Rate Increase

2009-05-10T04:47:00.000-07:00

I just read this article on the postal rate increase that goes into effect Monday.

Pre-emptive disclaimer: I work for the post office.

This story points out that the post office does not receive taxpayer assistance. Then it makes this comment about one of the ways the post office is trying to cut costs:

Postmaster General John Potter has asked Congress for permission to reduce mail delivery to five days-a-week.

First, somebody tell me why we have to ask Congress for anything, given that we don’t get any funding from them.

Second. I don’t remember if I read this in a news story or an internal memo (if this part disappears later, you’ll have your answer), but the day of the week they want to do away with is Tuesday, which is typically the slowest day of the week for us.

Picture letter carriers getting Sunday and Tuesday off. Now picture them coming on to work on Monday. Hard to do, yes?

Now, whenever we raise our rates by two cents or so, there is inevitably talk of getting rid of our monopoly on first class mail. (I haven’t seen anything yet this time, but if you look at the comments in the news story I linked to here, you’ll see a bunch of people calling for this exact thing, after reading the tragic tale of how we misdelivered one letter.)

So I’m going to pre-emptively take those people on, too. I have given this idea a lot of thought, while on break, visiting with coworkers, or just daydreaming at my desk.

I simply don’t believe that UPS or Fedex can do it for less than a dollar. For that matter, I don’t see how they could afford the start-up infrastructure. I know they have an existing infrastructure, but they would need more. More machines, more people, more trucks. Lots more. A quick check of Wikipedia indicates that we employ about twice as many people as UPS and three times as many as Fedex.

So imagine that the floodgates were opened, and these two companies started competing for first-class mail business. Three companies would then employ enough drivers to go to every house every day. Since the total mail volume would be about the same, how long do you suppose this arrangement would last?

Further suppose that UPS or Fedex wins the “postal war”. How long do you suppose they would continue delivering to Podunk, Alaska?

Oh well. Screw the Podunkians. There aren’t very many of them, so who cares?

And to give you an idea of the magnitude of the mail, when postal workers went on strike years ago, the national guard was called in to handle the mail, but they couldn’t do it. (I said, with a hint of pride.)

Anyway, feel free to whine about the postal rate increase in the comments. Or tell the story of the really important postcard we lost just because we don’t like you. Believe me, with 700 million pieces of mail each day, we don’t have time not to like you.

And if you want to find out how relatively exciting your job is, ask me what I do sometime.

Recommendations and Caveats

2009-05-09T01:51:00.000-07:00

These are not necessarily favorites. Just things I enjoy that I feel like sharing with you all.

TV Show: Boston Legal

Caveat: It’s a wee bit over the top.

Caveat #2: It contains William Shatner.

Shatner really pulls off the role of Denny Crane, an aging yet undefeated legendary defense attorney. And James Spader as Alan Shore is at the top of his game. Candace Bergen is outstanding as well. After watching my first episode, I thought it was too ludicrous. By the second, I thought it was just ludicrous enough. It’s off the air now, but available on DVD.

Movie: Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead

Caveat: Cast Interviews

This is one of my all-time favorite films. Written by Tom Stoppard, it catalogues the adventures of two minor characters from Hamlet. You should definitely buy the DVD and watch the interviews with the cast and Mr. Stoppard. I say that because I did, and I want to spread the pain around. Truly awful. But the film is still awesome. Heck, I even liked Richard Dreyfuss in it. Gary Oldman and Tim Roth also star, and are just perfect.

Caveat #2: Maybe they are undead now.

Snack Food: Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups

I realize this isn’t exactly a groundbreaking revelation, but only Haagen-Dazs improves the Chocolate/Peanut Butter combo.

Caveat: 4 out of 5 nutritionists surveyed cliam that Reese’s and Mountain Dew should not comprise your entire diet. But your dentist sends you Christmas and Birthday cards. How cool is that?

Books: Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan novels

This series, especially the earlier ones, are a bit dated, but still pretty damned good. I recently reread most of them (something I tend to do every few years, which is why I keep them around), and enjoyed them again.

Caveat: There is a lot of locker-room-style male-bonding going on. This was particularly noticeable in The Sum of All Fears. Lots of references to “big brass ones”. It can get tedious. The series is recommended anyway. There is no reason to read beyond Executive Orders, unless watching the Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead interviews wasn’t tedious enough.

Some Stuff You Might Not Know About Gambling For A Living

2009-05-07T23:42:00.000-07:00

Professional blackjack players have an average advantage of about 1.5%, according to the books I’ve read. And yet, even with that edge, at most 1.6% of the time, you reach an all-time high. The rest of the time (over 98%) your bankroll is lower than it was at some point in the past. Meaning, most of the time it seems like you’re losing.
For a given size of bankroll, and a given percentage advantage, there exists an optimal-sized bet amount. Bet lower than this, and you won’t be making as much money as you could be making. Bet higher than this, and your risk of ruin increases. In fact, if you exceed this by too much, your risk of ruin becomes 100%. To see how this might work, start with an imaginary bankroll of, say, $100. Flip a coin twenty times, betting 50% of your bankroll on each outcome. (Remember to adjust the bet size for each flip.) This would seem to be an even-money proposition, yet your bankroll will trend downward.
For a given size bankroll, a given precentage advantage, and a given bet size, your risk of ruin can be calculated. (No, I’m not going to show you how here.) Imagine a poker player with a $10,000 bankroll playing a $20-$40 Holdem game. Imagine his edge yields, on average, $40 per hour. Interestingly, if he takes $40 per hour out of his bankroll as his pay (you know, to eat and pay the bills and such), his risk of ruin is 100%. (Depending on the size of his bankroll, this may take a long time, but it WILL happen.) So that’s what professional gamblers have to cope with. (The way they do that is by taking a smaller amount out of their bankroll, and if they do experience a large downturn, finding another game with lower stakes.)

Sources:

Professional Blackjack, by Stanford Wong

The Mathematics of Poker, by Bill Chen

Susan Boyle

2009-04-16T17:13:00.000-07:00

You've all probably seen this already. I don't care. Here it is again.

Susan Boyle on Britain's Got Talent

You go, girl!

I like watching Simon's face change when she starts singing.

Never before have I purchased an album from a contestant on one of these shows. I think that will soon change.

Tea Party

2009-04-15T19:24:00.000-07:00

This rambles a bit. You have been warned.

There’s something called a Tea Party Movement happening in the US. My understanding from reading a bit about it is that it is comprised of people who think we need to go back to Bush’s policies in order to get out of the recession that was caused by Bush’s policies. The organizers behind it are “conservatives”, such as Fox News. (I used quotation marks because I don’t think today’s “conservatives” have any understanding of conservatism. But I digress.)

And speaking of digressions: I wonder what the present value would be of all the tea we tossed into the harbor, lo these many years ago. Just wondering. Good tea is pricey, after all.

But this Tea Party thing concerns me in another way. I don’t know if people have noticed or not, but President Obama, the times I’ve seen him, has not been playing the blame game. He has bent over backwards to not blame his predecessor (George W. Bush, for those who may have forgotten) for the ills faced by our country. Even as he spent the first 10 minutes in office reversing all those executive orders.

The word is Class, and it’s something that has been noticeably absent from politics for, um, a while.

But the GOP, instead of praising, or even acknowledging it, is instead moving to capitalize on it. (Get it? Capitalize?) It seems that the Tea Movement is the first step in shifting the blame onto Obama, by taking advantage of the fact that he doesn’t seem to want to play dirty.

Now, for the intelligent in this country, such as myself, this is not a credible threat. I see through it, thus it has no effect.

But what we keep underestimating is the vast sea of genetic curiosities who are, believe it or not, actually registered to vote. They’re out there, folks. They are the reason I bemoan the anti-poker legislation this country has passed. Those were good times. All in with 6-2 offsuit. Really.

But now they are being whipped into a frenzy, with talk of revolution. The GOP leadership (by which I mean Rush Limbaugh) is behind it. Which, in my book, constitutes evidence that their ideology is unsound. Rational presentation of their case has stopped working, so now they have to do this. At no point does it enter their minds that some of their ideas might actually be wrong.

And the longer-view prospects are dim. Should they succeed, class (remember class? This is an article about class) will be forever removed from the political arena, because it just doesn’t work. So think about that. And if you know some of the aforementioned curiosities who cannot think, just start a cult and invite them all in.

Dissin’ the Post Office

2009-04-14T22:27:00.000-07:00

It must have been a pretty slow news day in Modesto, CA.

The headline reads, “Couple’s Tax Documents Certifiably Lost”, by Jeff Jardine. Basically a couple had sent their tax stuff to their tricky accountant, and the package was instead delivered to the IRS in Fresno.

Several things:

1. I love the mean, ‘unamused’ look the couple gave for the picture. Perfect indignation for someone so very wronged.

2. Their tax documents, according to the story, are not lost, as the headline proclaims. Their location is known.

3. I was awestruck by the coincidence that their tax documents were mistakenly delivered to the IRS. Perhaps the mail clerk was merely clairvoyant, and expedited delivery to the final destination. Or perhaps the couple in question accidentally put the IRS label on the envelope. Choose for yourself which scenario is more likely.

4. I’m a postal employee, so perhaps my opinion should be taken with a grain of salt, but the US Postal Service processes about 700 million pieces of mail each day. Why is it that when one gets lost (or misdirected), it is newsworthy? All the people I know at the post office are hardworking and conscientious. And sometimes make an error (most often resulting in delay rather than misdelivery).

5. The writer mentions at the end that the couple will send their copies either UPS or FedEx. They’re willing to spend more money on a company that, in their eyes, has a less than 1/700 million chance of “losing” their package. Dave and Ann Milhous, I salute your acumen.

6. This is.... aggressive:

Nor has she gotten an explanation from the post office about how their information wound up in Fresno which, if my AAA road map isn't outdated, is still due south of Modesto. San Jose is due west.

What kind of explanation would satisfy them? Do they think that one of us, in the process of delivering it to the wrong destination, thought to scribble down the reason for doing so? I have encountered many such people in my time, “demanding” an explanation, when there is no way of knowing. However, I refer the reader to Number 2, above.

And Mr. Jardine's smart-alecki-ness seems unwarranted as well. Does he think we sort the mail by the direction it's heading?

7. While not the subject of my rant, I am amused that they think anyone at the IRS has the time to stop what they are doing at this time of year, and go sort through what must be a mountain of post looking for a package with a specific return address. That borders on delusional.

The Sixth Sense

2009-04-11T17:15:00.001-07:00

This looks like a technoweenie's wet dream.

Discount Rate

2009-04-11T16:41:00.000-07:00

So I'm putzing around at IMDB, and for whatever reason I'm reading the little bio on Charlie Sheen. Included therein is this tidbit:

In 1995, the same year he was briefly married to model Donna Peele, he was called to testify at the trial of Hollywood madam Heidi Fleiss. At the trial, while under oath he admitted to spending nearly $50,000 on 27 of Fleiss' $2,500-a-night prostitutes.

Seven of which, I must assume, were freebies. Or fourteen 2-for-1 specials.

Extreme Golf

2009-04-03T00:09:00.000-07:00

I'm not a golfer, but check out this hole.

Par 3, my ass. Story here.

Two Unrelated Items

2009-04-01T21:31:00.000-07:00

A couple of news items lately have piqued my interest, so here I am, sharing.

Ballpark Figures are Too High, Fans Say

A poll shows that baseball fans are unhappy with high ticket prices.

Margaret Costello, a retired teacher from Sandusky, Ohio, assessed blame across the board.

"I'm not happy about the prices," she said this week at the Indians' new camp. "Every sports team in America, every professional athlete, is out of line.

"We have people losing their jobs, and CC Sabathia — I love him, he was my favorite — he gets more millions than a third-world country's national budget?" she said.

"I'm here for spring training, but I think this is the last time. Every year, I get more disillusioned with the millionaire players. Now, with Americans really in a financial bind, these guys keep getting richer? It has to stop."

I disagree; I don’t think she “assessed blame across the board”. In fact, she left out the actual guilty party: the fans. In other words, herself. If no one bought a ticket to a game, I guarantee prices will drop next season. A lot.

But that's not going to happen:

Overall, almost 60 percent of poll respondents said going to a game was more expensive than other entertainment they might consider. Yet there was no indication they would stay away because of the prices — only 11 percent who went to a game in 2008 said they aren't likely to go back this year.

Sports franchises exist to make money. They’re not out to “get” anyone; they are interested in maximizing profits. Period.

Do you know what the difference is between selling 1 ticket for a million dollars, and selling 20,000 tickets for $25?

Half a million. Guess which way?

Point is, selling fewer tickets for a higher price can be more profitable. The teams will continue charging whatever the market will bear.

And I love that another thing sports fans whine about is the high player salaries. That tickles me. High ticket prices and high player salaries. Hmm.

And now for something completely different:

9 patients made nearly 2,700 ER visits in Texas

AUSTIN, Texas – Just nine people accounted for nearly 2,700 of the emergency room visits in the Austin area during the past six years at a cost of $3 million to taxpayers and others, according to a report.

The $3 million figure comes from this:

The average emergency room visit costs $1,000. Hospitals and taxpayers paid the bill through government programs such as Medicare and Medicaid, Kitchen said.

Now, before you cry a river for those poor hospitals, bear in mind that these are the same people who charge you $20 for an aspirin. Or a band-aid. Or $40 for one of each. So I’m guessing that the $1.000 figure just might be inflated a bit. I wonder if the statement that hospitals and taxpayers are footing the bill means that taxpayers are only paying $10 for the band-aid.

And as for the fact that such a small group accounted for such a large number of visits: doesn’t anyone keep records? Couldn’t they have figured this out sooner? Or is it just possible that $10 for a band-aid still shows a profit?

Google is Date-Sensitive

2009-04-01T00:42:00.000-07:00

Gmail has a new announcement for something called "Gmail Autopilot". The link leads here. Take a look, and love the Google, as I do.

The Marriage of Figaro

2009-03-20T02:52:00.000-07:00

Bryn Terfel

President Obama on The Tonight Show

2009-03-20T01:33:00.000-07:00

"A whole 'nother level of cool"

AIG Bonuses

2009-03-15T01:58:00.000-07:00

From the New York Times:

A.I.G. Planning Huge Bonuses After $170 Billion Bailout

The article mentions that AIG is now about 80% owned by the U.S. Government.

In a letter to Mr. [Treasury Secretary Timothy F.] Geithner, Edward M. Liddy, the government-appointed chairman of A.I.G., said at least some bonuses were needed to keep the most skilled executives.

“We cannot attract and retain the best and the brightest talent to lead and staff the A.I.G. businesses — which are now being operated principally on behalf of American taxpayers — if employees believe their compensation is subject to continued and arbitrary adjustment by the U.S. Treasury,” he wrote Geithner on Saturday.

I’m not sure what the most damning element is here. “Skilled executives” must be a contender, as is “arbitrary”. I’m one of those people who believe that bonuses should be awarded for positive results, and withheld if one’s performance drives the company into the ground (although Carly Fiorina might disagree with me).

Dvorak Keyboard Concerto

2009-03-12T22:50:00.000-07:00

Some years ago, I switched to the Dvorak keyboard layout. For those of you who do not know, it is simply a different arrangement of the keys on my keyboard. Go take a look at it. The first thing you’ll notice is, “Wow, all the keys are in different places!” But look a little longer. Specifically at the placement of the vowels. It really cuts down on the amount of work your fingers have to do to produce text.

The reason for this is that the Qwerty layout was designed for typewriters. The old typewriters had “typebars”, which could easily become entangled when you were typing too fast. (Check out this picture.) The Qwerty layout was designed to slow you down. Now, in the computer age, no such obstacle exists.

I made the switch when I was about 30. (It’s supported by both Windows and Macs.) In my case, this involved about a two-week period of time when I was incapable of typing anything in a reasonable amount of time. This was because I had abandoned Qwerty (the layout most of you are using), and had not yet mastered Dvorak.

The first thing I did was to rearrange the physical keys themselves, to match the Dvorak layout. But modern keys have a slightly curved surface, and rearranging them resulted in an uncomfortable topography. So I switched them back and learned to touch type.

After about three weeks, I was fairly proficient at it, although not yet up to my previous Qwerty speed. After a couple of months, however, I surpassed my previous speed.

But fate, it seems, is not without a sense of irony. For the last three years, I have been employed as a Data Conversion Operator for the US Post Office (more on that job in a future post). This is a high-volume data entry job. And they use custom keyboards, which would not make a smooth transition to Dvorak. So now I use the standard Qwerty keyboard at work, and the Dvorak at home.

It may seem like a lot of work. But I can type the word “the” without leaving the home row. The the the the. Now you try.

What is it about British humour?

2009-03-10T17:30:00.000-07:00

From time to time, people ask me if I like British humour (specifically television shows and the Python movies). I usually respond, “I don’t know”. They assume that I haven’t watched any, and we move on from there.

The truth is more complicated. I have watched some, and I like it, really I do, but I just can’t stand it for more than about ten minutes.

This was driven home a few days ago when I watched the first episode of “A Bit of Fry and Laurie”. Stephen Fry, Hugh Laurie. I have become a huge Hugh Laurie fan because of the American TV show “House MD”, so I thought I’d give this a glance.

And it’s wonderful. Every sketch was excellent, and well done. I loved all of it. And I had to take a break after 10 minutes. Not because I didn’t like it, or got offended, or had to go to the bathroom, or anything like that. I simply needed a break.

I have the same kind of reaction to Monty Python. Good stuff, for ten minutes. Any ten minutes, it doesn’t matter. Then I start growing restless.

Can anyone shed some light on this mystery?

Probability Problem

2009-03-07T23:50:00.001-08:00

There I was, putzing around the Internet, all beveraged up thanks to the wonderful town of Lynchburg, Tennessee, (pop. 361, if the label is to be believed), when I stumbled upon this wonderful problem I could not solve (did I mention the "beveraged up" part?):

There is a city which hosts two taxi-cab companies, the Blue Cab Co. and the Green Cab Co. Blue cabs are blue and Green cabs are green; they are otherwise identical. 70 percent of the cabs in the city are Blue cabs, and 30 percent of the cabs in the city are Green cabs. Moreover, historically speaking, Blue cabs have been involved in 70% of all traffic accidents in the city that involved cabs, and Green cabs have been involved in 30% of all traffic accidents in the city that involved cabs. One night, there is a traffic accident involving a taxi-cab in the city, to which there is one witness. Authorities perform extensive tests on the witness, and determine that his ability to recognize cabs by their color at night is approximately 80 percent accurate and 20 percent inaccurate (meaning that when he is wrong he does not say he doesn’t know, but rather misidentifies it as being of the other color). The witness says the taxi-cab involved in the accident was ‘blue.’ On these facts, and strictly assuming the taxi-cab was not from some other city, what is the approximate probability that the taxi-cab involved in the accident belonged to the Blue Cab Co.?

Enjoy your Statistics class, Amy. :D

Solution tomorrow. Ish.

Update: Solution is available in Comments

A Romance on Three Legs

2009-03-07T17:01:00.000-08:00

Partly because a friend gave it a good review, and partly because he then mailed the book to me, I recently read A Romance on Three Legs, by Katie Hafner.

The book is a four-part fugue about a piano, the company that made it, the gifted and quirky pianist who finally found it, and the much-put-upon blind piano tuner who lovingly maintained it.

Sound dull? Norm said he intended to read only the prologue, but instead read the entire book in one sitting. I must echo that caution. I made the mistake of starting it late one night, and was irritated to have to leave it so I could sleep. This book is inexplicably fascinating, and difficult to set aside. I want to read another book by this author, to see if it was her writing gift or the subject material that so caught my interest.

At any rate, I highly recommend it.

Another caution: after reading it, you will have a powerful urge to buy a Steinway and Glenn Gould’s recordings. (I might be wrong about the Steinway; I have always wanted one, but even more now.) So far I have both recordings of Bach’s Goldberg Variations, and they are excellent. And, no, you can’t just get one of them. They are both great, and very different from each other.

For a free sample, watch this.

Recondita Armonia

2009-03-06T23:33:00.000-08:00

From Tosca.

Porn Statistics

2009-03-01T01:10:00.000-08:00

Yesterday, Norm posted a link to post on boingboing, entitled, “Red states consume more porn?" I have some things to say about the article's use of statistics, and rather than simply comment on Norm's blog, I thought I'd do so here, since I want to comment on it, and I want to make a blog post, but I don’t feel up to thinking of two things tonight.

Please note that it is not my intention to dispute the validity of the article in question. This is just a discussion on critical thinking.

Church-goers bought less online porn on Sundays – a 1% increase in a postal code's religious attendance was associated with a 0.1% drop in subscriptions that day.

When I was a kid and was dragged to church, it lasted a total of 3 hours. This is nearly 20% of the average person’s waking hours. So a 1% increase in the number of people wasting 20% of their day, assuming that subscriptions-per-hour-spent-not-at-church (SPHSNAC) is a constant, should work out to a 0.2% decrease in subscriptions. Since it only leads to a 0.1% decrease, the SPHSNAC must actually increase, not decrease as the statement would lead one to believe.

Your SPHSNAC may vary.

States where a majority of residents agreed with the statement "I have old-fashioned values about family and marriage," bought 3.6 more subscriptions per thousand people than states where a majority disagreed.

Did you notice they didn’t use a percentage this time? Whenever I read any article that tries to convince me of something using a mixture of percentages and absolute numbers, I am immediately suspicious. In this case, the number “3.6”, by itself, is almost meaningless. It needs a reference. Suppose in the other states that the number of subscriptions per thousand people was 2. Then, the 3.6 increase is quite significant. But if the number was 500, instead of 2, then an increase of 3.6 is not a big deal.

In my experience, the only reason to switch between percentages and actual values is to choose the one that makes your point in the more compelling manner.

Remember, 50% of all statistics are just made up.

Moving

2009-02-13T00:11:00.000-08:00

Moving day is Saturday! (You're all invited to come help! Free booze! (Afterward!))

This move is shaping up to be similar to previous moves. Late in the packing phase, there comes a time when I'm simply sick of packing. Everything left, including paperback books, Costco receipts, used Q-tips, whatever, gets tossed into boxes, to be sorted "later". That phase is coming soon. So far, though, the packing phase has gone well. My living room is full of boxes, ready to go.

Several people from work will be helping, so it should go pretty quick. Booze has already been purchased for them.

So, no posts lately, and probably none for a few days yet. If my helper friends don't show, it'll be longer, because I'll have to drink their booze myself.

Groundhog Day

2009-02-02T17:40:00.000-08:00

Super Bowl Ads

2009-02-02T08:47:00.000-08:00

I am not a fan of American football. (I'm not a fan of "real" football, or American soccer, either, but that's neither here nor there.) However, I have always enjoyed the advertisements for the Super Bowl. Since they cost so much to air, greater care is taken to make them good and entertaining.

The last few years, I have been able to watch them on the Internet, thus bypassing the game entirely. But this year an odd thing happened. I was watching them via a link on Yahoo (you remember them). Get this: they were "brought to me" by some stupid looking TV show I can't even remember the name of.

So imagine. I'm watching ads, and ads are interspersed in them. Two Super Bowl ads, one 15-second spot for this TV show. It was surreal.

Pretty quickly, I tired of this. Really, that TV show looks pretty stupid (which I realize is also a trend). So I haven't seen most of the Super Bowl ads this year, ironically due to ad saturation.

Lost Weekend

2009-02-01T23:34:00.000-08:00

Something strange happens when you sit down to watch an old season of 24 on Saturday: Suddenly, it's Sunday. Evening. Late.

It was Season 4. On Friday, I started to watch Season 3, then realized how awful Kim Bauer is. Just awful. In Season 1, she's the "Helpless Female", a character cliche I loathe. In Season 2, there's a nuclear bomb that's about to go off in LA, and Jack tells her to leave the city. He tells her not to tell ANYONE about the bomb. She then proceeds to tell EVERYONE she meets, everyone from her boyfriend to the cop to the nutjob who lives in the woods in a cabin with a bomb-shelter basement.

But Season 3 was the worst. She works at CTU, and alternates between "I am Smart and Capable!" to "Helpless Female" to "Woman in Love with a CTU Field Agent, but Toughly Able to Handle It" to "OMG! My BF got a scratch!". Personally, as able and willing as I typically am to suspend my disbelief, I simply cannot accept that CTU would even employ her to clean the restrooms.

And while we're on the subject of 24, what exactly do they do in that office, anyway? I swear they only had one cue card for the actress portraying Audrey Raines: "We're going over DOD protocols". Everybody is constantly going over protocols, uploading protocols, crossloading protocols, or managing protocols. Every once in awhile, someone moves a satellite so they can follow some car.

And I say all of this, even though I'm a huge fan. Jack Bauer is awesome, and fun to watch. It's a lot like James Bond, right down to the fact that important characters are evidently immune to machine gun fire. I also like the realtime format of the show, even though that sometimes works against them.

The trouble is, sometimes I sit down to be entertained for awhile, and suddenly it's Sunday. Evening. Late.

North Tower Exploding

2009-01-28T22:06:00.000-08:00

Another reason I don't buy into the "pancake" theory.

Legal Research

2009-01-24T20:33:00.000-08:00

So tonight I'm watching some Boston Legal episodes from season 5. Early in the episode entitled "Mad Cows", the point is made that 8 out of the previous 11 presidential elections had gone Republican. That seemed a bit high to me, so I made a quick list:

2004 W

2000 W

1996 Bill Clinton

1992 Bill Clinton

1988 Bush Sr

1984 Reagan

1980 Reagan

1976 Carter

1972 Nixon

1968 Nixon

1964 LBJ

I went from memory, except for 1964, which I don't remember, having not yet been born. But Wikipedia helped there. By my count, we have Clinton (2), Carter, and LBJ winning a total of 4 of the previous 11 presidential elections, meaning Republicans have won the remaining 7.

I'm not sure why this is important to me, but did Boston Legal miss this? Or did I miscalculate? Please let me know if I missed something.

Song for Guy

2009-01-24T00:29:00.000-08:00

About ten years ago, in 1999-2000, Elton John went on tour without his band. I attended three of these shows. When he performs with his band, his shows are excellent. When he performs solo, however, he really shines.

Just in case you missed it, here is a clip from that tour, from Pontevedra, Spain.

Interview with a Blogger

2009-01-20T19:58:00.000-08:00

I saw on Anna's blog something that looks suspiciously like a chain letter, but it seemed like a lot of fun anyway, so here it is. Bloggers interviewing bloggers! (The mind bloggles!)

The rules are:

1) Leave me a comment saying "interview me".
2) I will respond by emailing you 5 questions (I get to pick the questions)
3) You will update your blog with answers to the questions.
4) You will include the explanation and offer to interview someone else in the same post.
5) When others comment asking to be interviewed, you will ask them 5 questions.

So here I am, facing 5 scintillating questions from Anna. Here we go!

1) You have 1 bottle of Jack, 2 albums and 2 guests. What are the albums/guests and what happens when the Jack runs out?

I realize that there is much innuendo in that question, but I'm going to skip that aspect of it, and try for people who I'd be interested in talking to for an evening.

But who to choose? So many possibilities. I first thought I would list them, but now I think that would be cheating, so only two. I'm certain I'll change my mind later, when I suddenly remember someone else, but I'll go with what I'm thinking now.

Peter Jackson (Lord of the Rings director)

Dennis Phillips (Finished 3rd in the main event at last year's World Series of Poker)

I'm not sure the albums would necessarily complement the evening, but here's two faves:

Puccini's Tosca

Vladimir Horowitz: The Last Romantic

And everyone who knows me will chuckle at the very idea of the Jack running out.

2) What are your views on the death penalty?

In a word, "contradictory". I understand that there is evidence that it does not lower the homicide rate, but I cling to the idea that it must. I will also admit that a bit of blood thirst is in play. I wish we could speed the process up, as I feel it would be more of a deterrent if it didn't take so long. At the same time, the foremost principle to be applied to these cases should be, "Be absolutely certain of guilt".

3) You are offered the chance to rule the world, but only for an hour and you can only pass 3 laws - what are they?

1. Get rid of all stores that end in "mart". (Okay, I got the idea from Alan Shore on Boston Legal. But still.)

2. "24" will no longer be shown on television in its current one-hour-per-week format; instead, they must broadcast all 24 episodes in a full-day marathon that I can TiVo.

3. Sarah Palin is cast out.

4) If you were a chess piece, which piece would you be and why?

The knight. Elegance, with a touch of trickiness.

5) If you ran a cult, what would it be called and what would its main principles be?

Goodness gracious, I have no idea. I've always wanted to run a cult. I am so annoyed by the simpleminded idiots that plague this planet that the idea of having a bunch of them serve me after donating all their money to me is quite appealing.

So the only answer I can come up with is we'll call it the Ponzi Cult, and it's main principle would be to spawn more cults, with a unidirectional cash flow and a clever accountant.

Rush Limbaugh Hates America

2009-01-20T00:55:00.000-08:00

I saw this news story the night before the Inauguration. It includes the following quote by Rush Limbaugh:

"They didn't give Bush a chance in 2000. Before he was inaugurated, the search-and-destroy mission had begun. I'm not talking about search-and-destroy, but I've been listening to Barack Obama for a year and a half. I know what his politics are. I know what his plans are, as he has stated them. I don't want them to succeed."

Pause, while this sinks in.

Okay, let's start with the first part. In my opinion, no one, ever, gets to claim that Bush was a "victim" of a "search-and-destroy mission". He got away with ignoring, avoiding, and dismantling the Constitution to an unprecedented degree, starting a war on false pretenses, and being a global embarrassment to us all.

His predecessor got impeached for lying about having sex.

However, it is the second part of this quote, in particular the last sentence, that truly reveals who and what Rush Limbaugh is. If you have ideological differences with someone, what you would say is, "I don't believe your policies will succeed." If you say, "I don't want them to succeed", then what you are saying is that you don't care if the country suffers; the important thing is that your opponent is wrong.

One problem I have with the entire right-wing apparatus in this country is that so many of them think this same way. To be honest, if they added an ounce of common sense, not to mention common decency, they would have my support. But I will not abide any person, or group, who would rather see their enemies fail than their nation succeed.

Courage

2009-01-15T20:15:00.000-08:00

"I wanted you to see what real courage is, instead of getting the idea that courage is a man with a gun in his hand. It's when you know you're licked before you begin but you begin anyway and you see it through no matter what. You rarely win, but sometimes you do."

- Atticus Finch, "To Kill a Mockingbird"

WTC Core

2009-01-14T19:52:00.000-08:00

One reason I don't buy into the "pancake" theory.

Proposition 8

2009-01-12T10:44:00.000-08:00

I am in favor of same-sex marriage. To my mind, there is simply no rational reason to deny people this right. There are several legal rights that go along with marriage, such as tax breaks. It is unconscionable to deny these rights to an entire group of people.

So when the Mormon church actively campaigned in support of California's Proposition 8, I felt it was tantamount to a hate crime. It caused me to recategorize it as a political organization. I realize that they have been active in politics for some time in my home state of Utah, but in my mind this crossed another, firmer line.

On one hand, I just don't see why they, or anyone, give a rat's ass. I fail to see how it would diminish the so-called "sanctity of marriage". That's a religious term, and no one is suggesting that churches be forced to "sanctify" these marriages by hosting them or officiating in any way. Your temple marriages are safe.

On the other hand, I'm afraid I do understand. It's fun to hate. It's fun to discriminate. It's fun to pick on minorities. I don't know this firsthand; but I see it all over the world, and throughout history. Indeed, when the Mormon church first started out, they were similarly disparaged. The hypocrisy is stunning.

I am also finding that it has colored my view of my Mormon friends. I generally don't care what my friends believe, yet I am finding it increasingly difficult to ignore these hateful, bullying acts. It's sad, because some of them seem to be likeable, quality people. But I am experiencing difficulty reconciling what they appear to be with the actions they take.

Update: onegoodmove.org posted a relevant video.

Bible Studies: Beautiful People Wanted

2009-01-09T22:19:00.000-08:00

"And the Lord spake unto Moses, saying, speak unto Aaron, saying, whosoever he be of thy seed in their generations that hath any blemish, let him not approach to offer the bread of his God. For whatsoever man he be that hath a blemish, he shall not approach: a blind man, or a lame, or he that hath a flat nose, or any thing superfluous, or a man that is brokenfooted, or brokenhanded, or crookbacked, or a dwarf, or that hath a blemish in his eye, or be scurvy, or scabbed, or hath his stones broken; no man that hath a blemish of the seed of Aaron the priest shall come nigh to offer the offerings of the Lord made by fire: he hath a blemish; he shall not come nigh to offer the bread of his God. He shall eat the bread of his God, both of the most holy, and of the holy. Only he shall not go in unto the vail, nor come nigh unto the altar, because he hath a blemish; that he profane not my sanctuaries: for I the Lord do sanctify them."

Leviticus 21: 16-23

They Still Get To Vote

2009-01-07T22:06:00.000-08:00

"Almost 47% of this country didn't vote for Obama, perhaps because they disagreed with him on the issues, which is fine, but some, no doubt, because they thought he was Muslim, with terrorists on his speed dial; and others because they were convinced he was not only socialist, but even worse, a bad bowler; and others still because they simply loved those cream colored jackets Sarah may have to give back.

But there's one thing all those idiots have in common. They still get to vote."

- Alan Shore (Boston Legal)

The Gentle Genius

2009-01-06T22:33:00.000-08:00

I was just on the phone with Norm, and he asked me what kind of blog I was creating. I answered, "Varied".

This segued into a reminiscence about Igor Ivanov. (Varied. I told you.) And now I'd like to share with you.

Igor Ivanov (1947-2005) was a great chess player, who I had the great fortune to know. I even played against him on several occasions. None of these contests were at all close, so great was the disparity of skill.

One year, we were both playing in the Utah Open Chess Championship. Prior to the event, Igor and I were talking. We may even have been playing Hearts; this was a common pastime. I mentioned to him that I hated playing chess against him. Not because I always lost, but because I never learned anything in the process. Seventeen moves or so into a game with him, I would simply have a hopeless position, and resign.

When I told him this, he chuckled.

In round two, we were paired against each other. We met at the table and set up the pieces, and waited for play to begin. Just before the round began, he leaned across the board, and in an almost conspiratorial whisper (and his thick Russian accent) said, "Today I teach you good lesson."

He proceeded to crush me. Again. I'm certain he had a winning attack after about 15 moves. Instead of pursuing it, however, he retreated, consolidated his position, and remained a pawn ahead. One pawn. He was actually willing to spend the next few hours slowly torturing me, and finally defeating me, with that small advantage.

So I resigned. That'll teach him!

I have many other recollections of the man. It occurs to me that I took for granted my association with him. Somehow, it just always seemed so natural that this amazing, gentle genius was playing hearts with me, or joking with me, or playing the piano spectacularly, or cooking the worst liver I have ever had.

I didn't recognize my great fortune at the time.

(Norm has an even better tribute here.)

The George Bush You Forgot

2009-01-05T20:49:00.000-08:00

tip to Max

Chess vs Poker

2009-01-05T00:44:00.000-08:00

I see that Norm has put the word out, and it has generated traffic. Many thanks, and keep up the good work at onegoodmove!

Norm and I have known each other for longer than we would care to admit. We used to see each other 2-3 times a year at chess tournaments. I have, over the past few years, grown fond of poker tournaments, mainly online. Norm and I were discussing this recently, and I lamented the fact that we didn't latch onto poker earlier. Poker tournaments and chess tournaments have a lot in common. Both are populated by what might kindly be referred to as a diverse group of people. ("Full of maladjusted jerks" would be unkind, see.) In both events, the prize pool is put up by the participants. There is a great opportunity to socialize with friends who share at least one common interest with you. The main difference I see is that, in chess tournaments, every once in awhile one of your buddies wins $100 or so, and buys breakfast. At poker tournaments, every once in awhile one of your buddies wins $250,000 or so, and buys a weeklong orgy in a Bellagio suite.

Oh well. I'm sure even Phil Hellmuth would be amazed at my mastery of the Najdorf Sicilian, and possibly even Norm's stupid Gruenfeld Defense.

Anyway, I've given up chess. (Don't kid yourself, friend, I still know how.) My current goal is to experience the terrifying exhilaration of sitting down to play in the championship event at the World Series of Poker.

Followed by a week at the Bellagio.

You Know Who You Are

2009-01-03T18:21:00.000-08:00

A friend of mine posted this on his blog.

It's a picture of a billboard. The text starts with, "Attention Lunatic Atheists". As many of you might imagine, this caught my attention.

Now, I have many friends who are Christians. In fact, I was discussing this very picture with one of them this evening. But here's my take on this. Believe whatever you like. Believe in the virgin birth. Believe in the resurrection. Believe that aliens deposited trillions of alien souls into our volcanoes, if you wish.

But do not then try to fashion yourself as a bastion of rationality by calling the rest of us "lunatics". If you are trying to embarrass us, it won't work. If you are trying to convert us, it won't work. All you are trying to do is feel better about yourself at the expense of others.

As an aside, and possibly a prologue to a future post, I find it quite telling that some religious groups, having themselves faced a history of persecution, find it entirely acceptable to then persecute other groups.

You know who you are.